Using the PACSURGE System to Develop Storm Surge Models for Honolulu, Hawaii

Using the PACSURGE System to Develop Storm Surge Models

for Honolulu, Hawaii

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to build upon an existing study conducted by Dr. Patrick Fitzpatrick, Dr. John Knaff, Charles Sampson, and Yee Lau, who created the PACSURGE system. This system is composed of a two parts that allow for a one-dimensional study of storm surge prior to landfall. The first component known as PACSURGE-M is a one-dimensional model, while PACSURGE is second portion that uses a one-dimensional steady state peak surge conditions at landfall. The previous research focused on the Pacific Islands, primarily at Okinawa’s Buckner Bay (Nakagusuku Bay). This research will use the PACSURGE System and apply it to the city of Honolulu, Hawaii, and its surrounding vicinities. In order to facilitate this research, a compilation of data from several previous tropical cyclones will be needed. These storms include: Hurricane Dot in 1959, Hurricane Iwa in 1982, and Hurricane Iniki in 1992. The surge data will be validated against PACSURGE for the Pearl Harbor and Honolulu areas. As Oahu has not experienced a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, additional validation will be performed against the SLOSH model data, including major hurricanes. The bathymetry data will be modified to represent the depths of Mamala Bay just off the coast of Honolulu, Hawaii. The long-term goal is to provide probabilistic surge guidance based on perturbed tracks and intensities, similar to the PACSURGE system being run operationally by the Naval Research Laboratory in Okinawa, and to import these forecasts in the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. PACSURGE can also assist the Oahu emergency preparedness officials with risk assessment from tropical cyclone impacts.