Analyzing Lightning Data to Help Optimize Operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

Central Florida has the highest lightning flash density in the United States. Consequently, operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (ccAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are often disrupted by this weather phenomenon. In order to provide lightning safety for over 25,000 personnel and resource protection for over $20 billion of facilities, the U.S. Air Force 45^th Weather Squadron issues an average of over 2,500 lightning warnings each year. These lightning warnings are based on circles with a radius of 5 NM or 6 NM depending on whether a single small facility, or several close small facilities or a single large facility is being warned, respectively. Recent studies have shown that the radii of these lightning warning circles could be reduced by 1 NM while maintaining good safety. This could increase operational availability up to 36%. The objective of this research is to optimize the radii of the lightning warning circles to potentially improve efficiency of ground operations while maintaining good safety standards. The goals of this study are (1) to independently confirm the previous studies since lightning safety is so important at CCAFS/KSC; (2) to document the performance of the various radii with lightning observations different than those used in previous studies; and, (3) to confirm the results from previous studies are still valid with this new lightning dataset. This study will use total lightning stroke data from the Mesoscale Eastern Range Lightning Information System (MERLIN), collected during May-September 2018. The number of correct warnings, missed warnings, false alarms, and the total warning time will be calculated with different lightning warning circle radii for each of the ten key facilities. Then, a statistical regression technique will be performed with those results to determine which radius optimizes the balance between maximizing operational availability and minimizing risk. Preliminary results will be discussed.