Local Particulate Matter Distribution and Health Impacts across the United States under Nuclear-Free Energy Scenarios

Future energy scenarios are likely to transition away from our current 20% reliance on nuclear energy due to a combination of policies and shutdowns of nuclear power plants that have reached the end of their lifetime. In such a case, other sources of energy generation will be needed to make up for the losses, thus impacting air pollution distribution and associated health impacts. Coupling an energy grid optimization model validated for the year 2016 with GEOS-chem, I assess daily, generator-level pollutant emissions and associated health impacts over a five-year period. I evaluate three scenarios, representing the most extreme potential energy outcomes: 1. A base case continuation of nuclear as is; 2. Replacement of all nuclear power with the most cost- effective renewables; 3. Replacement of all nuclear power with coal and natural gas. This will provide more spatially detailed assessments than current work in this field provides. Existing models and methods do not have the capacity to look at generator level changes in emissions and pollution distribution, and they only provide annual, national changes in pollutants and mortality. Through development and implementation of this energy grid optimization model, this method takes into account spatial variation in changes in particulate matter, and associated health impacts. This is important when considering energy policy implementation, as the resulting changes in pollution will not be uniform across the country, and can lead to diverse regional priorities.