Heat Wave Identification Using an Operational Weather Model and Analog Ensemble

Heat waves are notoriously difficult to forecast due to their highly localized variables, yet remain the world's deadliest natural disaster. This project uses the Analog Ensemble technique (AnEn), which generates probability information from a deterministic predictive model, to more accurately and more widely identify heat waves across the continental United States. An algorithm is designed which calculates the heat index of a location from ensembles for apparent temperature and relative humidity, and compares it to the heat index of that location's ASOS weather station.