Case Study Comparing Forecast Data to Observed Data in Hurricane Irma

Case Study Comparing Forecast Data to Observed Data in Hurricane Irma

Talor Black¹, Duanjun Lu¹, H. R. shih²

^1.Jackson State University

2. NWS Jackson, NOAA

Irma (2017) was a category 5 Hurricane that was a catastrophic hurricane. It was a category 4 hurricane in the Florida Keys while landing and struck southwestern Florida at category 3 intensity. Irma caused widespread devastation across the affected areas and was one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. Strong wind was accompanied by a significant storm surge along Florida coast. The combined effect of storm surge and the tide produced maximum inundation levels of 5 to 8 ft above ground level from Lower Florida Keys to Big Pine Key and Bahia Honda Key. The purpose of this research is to analyze the projected vs actual meteorological data for Irma. A forecast verification is performed to determine how well the forecast for Irma was and how the model may be improved for future storms. Doing this will help forecasters be aware of the things in which need major improvement in order to retain a more accurate forecast during the next hurricane and/or tropical storm. Creating data tables, we are able to see the difference in recorded data among the most hit cities in Florida. Analysis for observations was conducted to notify the differences among the sites but more specifically the wind speeds and water levels of each site. Coupling the storm surge model and weather forecast model, Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), has been performed to investigate model simulation. Simulation was conducted in the period from Sept 1 2017 through Sept 12, 2017.