Observed Trends and Projections for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Tropical storm activity with respect to climate change is an active area of research. This paper examines observational hurricane track data from 1979 to 2018 in conjunction with previously published model simulations. Several articles are examined which include simulations of tropical cyclones in the present and future warmed climate. Data from these simulations are analyzed to gather new information about global warming and its effect on tropical cyclones. Landfall locations from observations were compared to locations from model simulations based upon current and future CO₂ levels. The change in landfall locations is examined as is the link between global warming and tropical cyclones and precipitation rates. As the climate has warmed over the course of several decades, hurricanes made landfall further north with greater frequencies. The Caribbean and Mexico also experienced an increase in the number of tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, there were no recorded landfalls in Canada but in later decades, Canadian landfalls became common. Statistics taken from these simulations and recorded observations result in a more complete understanding of the nature of tropical cyclones in a warmed climate. Model Simulations suggest increased precipitation associated with tropical cyclones in the future.