Session 4 Ensemble and Multimodel Forecasting, Including Postprocessing and Decision Support

Tuesday, 14 January 2020: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
260 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics
Cochairs:
Andrew Geyer, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; Johnna Infanti, NOAA, Climate Prediction Center/Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD and Elizabeth Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA

Papers:
8:30 AM
4.1
Multimodel Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Forecasting
Mark D. Powell, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. E. Kozar

8:45 AM
4.2
Use of Mixture-Model Clustering to Inform Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
Alex M. Kowaleski, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. L. Evans
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
4.3
Improving Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) Station-Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) for Wind Speed and Wind Gusts through Daily Bias Correction, Objective Weighting, and Blending
David E. Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
Recorded Presentation

4.4
Regime-Dependent Verification and Calibration of a 10-Member Convection-Permitting Ensemble during the 2019 HWT SFE

9:15 AM
4.5
An Exploration of the Analog Ensemble Search Space Extension and Spatiotemporal Reconstruction.
Laura Clemente-Harding, The Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA; Engineer Research and Development Center, Alexandria, VA; and G. S. Young, G. Cervone, W. Hu, S. E. Haupt, and L. Delle Monache
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
4.6
Improved Point Estimates of Probabilistic Moments for Non-Gaussian Multivariate Environmental Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis
Christina Tsai, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Hung

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