Analysis of Satellite Signatures, Pattern Recognition, and Eddy Dissipation Rate In Determining Potential Areas of Convectively Induced Turbulence

This study assists and improves the procedures of aircraft avoidance of turbulence near thunderstorms. Convectively induced turbulence (CIT) and near cloud turbulence (NCT) represents a significant hazard for the aviation industry and has shown to be responsible for over 60% of turbulence-related aircraft accidents (Cornman and Carmichael 1993). Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) avoidance guidelines do not properly address any formal tactical procedures when aircraft are more than 20 miles from a thunderstorm. However, CIT and NCT, often occur 200-300 miles downwind of large mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Using pattern recognition associated with the development of MCSs, satellite imagery of transverse bands within the outflow cloud shield, pilot reports (PIREPS) and aircraft eddy dissipation rate (EDR) data, this study shows that certain sub-synoptic scale environments are more conducive to moderate or severe turbulence. By examining several case studies, it is hopeful that operational aviation forecasters, airline flight dispatchers, pilots and air traffic controllers can utilize these results by updating current procedures as well as those to be implemented into the FAA next-generation air transportation system (NextGen).