WRF's wind power ensembles for a wind farm located in a coastal area of Turkey

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm located in a coastal area of Turkey. The simulated month is March when the plant is under strong south-westerly gusts. We performed multi-scale simulations using WRF's different PBL parameterizations as well as LES. WRF ensembles with different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations showed little spread for wind speed forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Model forecasts for ramps in general were poor. Complex topography of the study area also affects PBL parameterization's performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor in late afternoons.