2.1 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative

Monday, 26 June 2017: 10:30 AM
Salon G-I (Marriott Portland Downtown Waterfront)
Jadwiga H. Richter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anstey, N. Butchart, K. Hamilton, and S. M. Osprey

In the equatorial stratosphere the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the most conspicuous mode of variability. It is known for being predictable out to beyond a year and having statistically robust teleconnections within the tropics and high-latitudes. How the QBO and its teleconnections will change in the future is currently an outstanding question. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) was created to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. Here we describe five coordinated experiments that have been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or, alternatively the spread/uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g., a doubling of CO2 amounts) and, (iii) examine possible model dependence in QBO predictability. Highlights of results from each set of experiments will be presented.

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