19 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Warming Climate

Monday, 26 June 2017
Salon A-E (Marriott Portland Downtown Waterfront)
Jadwiga H. Richter, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Butchart, J. Anstey, A. C. Bushell, C. Cagnazzo, C. C. Chen, R. R. Garcia, K. Hamilton, Y. Kawatani, F. Lott, C. McLandress, H. Naoe, S. M. Osprey, J. F. Scinocca, F. Serva, and S. Watanabe

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the primary mode of variability of the tropical lower stratosphere. As the QBO is forced by a spectrum of waves from tropical convection as well as vertical advection, it is likely to change in a warming climate. We present here changes to the QBO from experiments with doubled and quadrupled CO2 concentrations and increased sea surface temperatures by 2 K and 4 K, respectively (Experiments 3 and 4 from the Quasi-biennial Oscillation Intercomparison (QBOi) project). We will focus here on the results from the Community Earth System Model with the 110-level Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM5-110L)) and compare with results from other models participating in QBOi. We will show that there is very large spread in the prediction of QBO properties among general circulation models in a warming climate and discuss the reasons for these differences.
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