Decision Support for Extreme Weather in Weeks 2-4

As the National Weather Service builds its capability for Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS), an area of growing interest from our core partners is the bridge from climate outlooks in Week 2 and beyond to extreme weather events. A number of tools from the NWS Climate Prediction Center can aid NWS meteorologists in drawing attention to potential extreme weather events in the 8- to 14-day time frame; these are mainly focused on temperature extremes. The Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model is used by the NWS Storm Prediction Center to provide tools that can aid anticipating severe convective weather potential. Other web tools provide access to the CFSv2 model and its potential for anticipating extreme temperatures, precipitation, and even convective potential. Additionally, researchers have investigated longer-range convective signals, with an array of tools available in test or experimental mode. We will demonstrate the application and use of these tools in both real and hypothetical decision support scenarios, highlighting both their capabilities and limitations.