During HI-SCALE, the mean surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes change by 20 to 30 W m-2 from IOP1 to IOP2. The grassland and cropland sites show opposite seasonal trends in each flux, such that Bowen Ratio (BR) decreases over the grassland but increases in the cropland. The (joint) probability distributions of the daytime surface fluxes generally follow the (bivariate) normal distribution, but they are positively skewed with high probability densities toward near-zero values. The preliminary site-level evaluation of a 12-h forecast, which assimilates only conventional atmospheric data for the initial conditions, shows that the model reliably forecasts temperature and moisture in the near-surface air and soil. However, in the deeper soil layers the model significantly underestimates soil moisture, presumably limiting plant's water use. This soil moisture bias is accompanied by underestimated LH and overestimated SH by 30 to 80 W m-2, which can exceed the observed standard deviations among 17 sites used for evaluation. The model reasonably reproduces observed differences in BRs between the two surface types and characteristics of the flux probability distributions when all the grassland and cropland grid cells are sampled across the ~3° x 3° domain. But better constraints on deep soil moisture seem necessary to reproduce the observed magnitude of the surface fluxes, which is in line with previous studies suggesting the importance of vegetation for surface energy fluxes over the region.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner