Study on Characteristics of Severe Convection and Potential Prediction in China

The severe convection storms in China include thunderstormAhailAsquallAtornado, etc.,and among which thunder shower gale and hail storm are the most prominent calamity weather. Recently the direct economic loss caused by severe convection weather in each year exceeds RMB10 billions, which takes more than 5.6% of total loss caused by nature disaster in China, therefore severe convection weather never attracts people's attention like it does today. Severe convection weather may happen in any seasons, but mostly it occurs in summertime, the territory and region where it occurs are also very distinct compared to the other calamity weather. The occurrence of systematic severe convection weather has close relation with synoptic scale circulation systems,the co-action of cold air activity in middle-low level of tropospheric and warm wet flow over underlying surface is the most important condition to the occurrence of severe convection weather,whereas dynamic lift at different scales is the important touch off mechanism. This paper systemically analyzes atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic parameters in connection with severe convection weather as well as the difference of weather characteristics in three areas in East of China (South of China, Yangtze river area and North of China),it also summarizes different concept modes. Meanwhile this paper states the structure configure between circulation system and physics parameters based on three typical severe convection process weather and the relevant analysis of dynamic diagnostic, it also reveals the relation between convective location and physics parameters upon analysis on meso-scale system. Based on the foregoing research result, we develop the operation on potential prediction of severe convection weather. We may provide determinability forecast and the combined prediction on probability and grade index by using the combined technologies of statistic analysis and dynamic diagnostic as well as explanation of numeric forecast products. In the prediction operation of year 2005-2006,the evaluation grade shows that the potential prediction plays a significant role, it further develops the technology on potential prediction of disaster weather.