Applications of Aircraft Sounding Data in Short-Term Convective Forecasting

Recent projects such as the Great Lakes Fleet Experiment (GLFE) have made real-time sounding data from commuter aircraft flying to smaller regional airports in the Great Lakes and Midwest available to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. These data were available through the NOAA Environmental Research System Lab's (ERSL) interactive aircraft data display website and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS).

The forecast utility of regional aircraft sounding data in assessing short-term (0-12 hour) convective potential was evaluated in an operational NWS forecast setting. Two types of scenarios were examined: 1) Subtle, marginally severe events in which severe weather occurred, but was not anticipated; and 2) Null events in which severe weather was anticipated but did not materialize. Several brief case studies will be presented to illustrate how the higher spatial and temporal resolution soundings (supplemented with other observational and model forecast datasets) allowed forecasters to more effectively monitor changes in important convective parameters such as low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN) and low-level wind shear. The increased temporal and spatial resolution regional aircraft soundings demonstrated significant promise in helping to improve assessment of short-term convective potential, particularly in the reduction of false alarms.