Thursday, 30 October 2008
Madison Ballroom (Hilton DeSoto)
Since use 1950s observed data and the disaster data and so on thunderstorm, hail, lightning data, station precipitation data, analyzes the disastrous weather to have the time and space distribution; Using the REEP technology, establishes the thunderstorm and the lightning probability of severe convective weather forecast (PoSCWF); Simultaneously uses Brier and Brier skill grading method investigates the potential forecast results. Evidence suggest that the Chinese severe convective weather would create every year the serious economic loss, will occupy the natural disaster 5-15%, 2001-2007 annual mean direct economic losses is 19 billion Chinese money completely; In the thunderstorm activity the lightning makes dies grown-up and the being injured population surpasses 800 persons; The severe convective weather occurs the probability distribution has the obvious geography and the diurnal variation difference, during the daytime and at nighttime severe convective weather distribution change is very obvious. The thunderstorm activity occurs frequently the following 5 regions, respectively is east of the Qinghai-Tibet, south and centre of Yunnan province, Sichuan domestic, Guangdong and Guangxi area and west of Sinkiang (Fig 1a). Various regions thunderstorm day number existence different annual variety characteristic, the thunderstorm day number slightly has the rise besides the Qinghai-Tibet Plain area, the overall assumes the declining trend. REOF analysis show the South China area, and so on Yangtze valley has the independent unusual space and time situation, is closely related with the specific circulation. Fig 1 1951-2007 probability of thunderstorm The severe precipitation mainly occurs in the eastern part of East Asia monsoon area, the Yangtze valley and the South China area sends the area for the frequency, is also the strong precipitation year annual variety rate most remarkable region. The EOF main modality demonstrated that two places have the trans-position characteristic. Near 50 year 100mm per day precipitation date number's change tendency shows, southern of South China partial to reduce the tendency slightly with North China, but near Jiangsu and Anhui province and the south of Yangzi River for obvious increases the tendency. Finally by Brier and Brier skill grading to analysis forecast ability of 2006-2007 severe convective weather, indicate that Brier grades in 0.05-0.20, the relative f=0.5 skill grades 20-80%, the confidence level index's analysis has certain instruction significance.
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