9A.6A Effective storm-based warning strategies (Formerly P6.9)

Tuesday, 28 October 2008: 5:45 PM
North & Center Ballroom (Hilton DeSoto)
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and K. R. Cook, J. T. Ferree, B. N. Grant, and J. LaDue

On 1 October 2007, the National Weather Service changed its severe local storm warning strategy and verification procedures from county-based to "storm-based". Ideally, this means warnings are issued for the expected path of the hazardous weather without regard to geopolitical boundaries. Some text-based dissemination systems are still county-based, complicating efforts to provide effective storm-based warnings. Convective systems and storm clusters with varying motion vectors and rapid evolution have posed a particularly significant challenge to forecasters.

This presentation will refer to radar data from several severe storm events to provide effective ways to issue storm-based warnings with these primary goals:

* Focus on specific threat area

* Minimize false alarm area

* Minimize the number of alerts for a single county

* Anticipate rapid storm evolution and variable storm motion

* Cover all reports with as much lead time as feasible

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