The goal of this study is to quantify the current level of skill in threat forecasting to develop a baseline from which future training and research efforts can build and improvements be measured. Severe weather reports in the NWS Davenport, Iowa county warning area from 2005-2007 were paired with the associated warning. The maximum hail size and/or maximum measured wind gust, or estimated wind gust (based on the type and degree of damage reported), were compared to the values stated in the initial warning issuance, and verification statistics were generated from that comparison. Tornado warnings are included for comparison purposes, although these statistics are tracked in the national verification program.
Verification results will be presented, and potential efforts toward improving the level of skill in threat forecasting will be discussed.