Session 13A Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather

Wednesday, 29 October 2008: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
North & Center Ballroom (Hilton DeSoto)
Host: 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair:
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK

Papers:
1:30 PM
13A.1
Utility of Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) guidance for forecasting the development of severe convection
Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK ; and D. R. Bright
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (352.6 kB)

1:45 PM
13A.2
Utilizing Short Range Ensemble Point Forecast Soundings for Severe Storms Forecasting
Jason J. Levit, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK ; and J. Hart, R. S. Schneider, D. R. Bright, and R. L. Thompson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (93.3 kB)

2:00 PM
13A.3
Using Short Range Ensemble Forecasts and High Resolution Model Guidance to Assess the Potential for Tornadoes across Southeast Virginia on 28 April 2008
Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA; and R. Grumm
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (513.7 kB)

2:15 PM
13A.4
Ensemble forecasts of severe convective events during spring 2007: Improvements from surface data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and D. C. Dowell
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
13A.5
Ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms
David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Stensrud
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
13A.6
Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: Model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership
Craig S. Schwartz, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, F. Kong, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, and M. S. Wandishin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

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