3D.1
The Advancement of NCEP's Hurricane Prediction System: Present and Future
Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan, Q. Liu, W. Shen, and S. Lord
The NCEP Global Model has shown a tremendous increase in track forecast skill during the 2001 hurricane season due to better use of observations, improved model physics and an improved storm representation. This advancement in track forecasting is the culmination of continuous and arduous improvements over the past decade which culminated in changes introduced in May 2001 (Pan et al, this conference). To advance our forecast performance further, a major effort is now underway at NCEP to improve hurricane intensity forecasts. We will concentrate on rapid intensification scenarios, weakening storm scenarios and improvement of precipitation forecasts for land falling storms to address the inland flooding problem.
To meet these important forecast objectives NCEP has begun an important step forward to assemble a hurricane mesoscale data assimilation effort that makes use of the aircraft core data to initialize the hurricane storm scale in anticipation of the next generation high resolution 3-D storm forecast model. Additionally, NCEP is carrying out experiments with a very high resolution coupled land surface model to capture the transition to landfall scenarios and related hurricane rainfall forecasts.
NCEP's plans for its next generation hurricane prediction system will be presented including a plan for critical observations and advanced modeling capabilities. These improvements are necessary to meet the next generation goals of the USWRP and of the international hurricane community forecast goals.
Session 3D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction (Parallel with Sessions 3A, 3B, & 3C)
Monday, 29 April 2002, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
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