25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. Kappler and M. DeMaria

A tropical cyclone (TC) poses a significant quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) problem as evidenced by the recent tragic loss of life and property from rainfall from Hurricanes Mitch (1998) and Floyd (1999). Improved QPF is one of the primary objectives of the U. S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), and a specific goal of the Hurricane at Landfall effort under USWRP . Estimates of rainfall based on radar and other remote sensors offer promising avenues for improvement. At the same time numerical models, both operational and research, have been improved, running on faster computers at higher resolution, and with improved model physics. However, there is little previous work focusing on validating model performance on QPF in TCs. Partly it is because of the lack of accurate observations of the rain distribution and evolution in TCs. A major stumbling block to improving QPFin TCs is a lack of a comprehensive climatology of TC precipitation, i.e., a description of the distribution of rain in space and time. However, remote sensors such as the WSR-88D and those on the NASA Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite are providing a first cut at a credible TC rain climatology. This climatology can be used to validate numerical models and other QPF methods using a simple climatology and persistence model for rainfall (R-CLIPER). The model will be described and examples will be presented.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (160K)

Session 7D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction V (Parallel with Session 7B and 7C)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM

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