9C.6
Possibility of prevention of destructive hurricanes generation by their initiation on stage of genesis
Vadim N. Pelevin, P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
The method of the prevention of destructive cyclone generation is suggested by their initiation on the stage of genesis.
We suggested to initiate TC in advance in the region of latitudes of regular TC generation, namely in the zones where the accessible potential energy (APE) is already sufficient for a TC generation but is still insufficient for a great and destructive TC forming [2]. For that purpose the zones of atmospheric vertical moist adiabatic instability should be revealed. Then the areas of possible TC generation are determined and the whole accessible potential energy is estimated. This estimate is compared to the APE level sufficient for a small TC initiation and decision about the artificial cyclone generation is made. For that purpose some local heating using heat explosion or adding some condensation centers in the zone of instability can be held (Pelevin V.N., Matyushenko V.A. Method of the weakening of the tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons). Patent #2150134 of Russian Federation. Priority from 02.03.1999.)
Conditions of the rise of troposphere convection are calculated. The criterion of probability of rise of cyclones is suggested; this one depends on temperature of ocean surface, atmospheric moisture and Coriolis parameter at these latitudes. The values of criterion is compared with the frequency of TC in Atlantic and Indian oceans. Estimation of the accessible potential energy (APE) of the tropical atmosphere, converting into the kinetic energy of the hurricane, can be carried out by the following method. Using data of UHF-radiometry from the satellites by known methods atmosphere temperature and moisture profiles are calculated. Then the minimum value of the atmosphere potential energy is determined. The last one occurs as a result of air layers exchange between each other under the conditions of moist-adiabatic process. Difference between the original potential energy of the atmosphere and resulted one after this procedure is APE per unit square of the water surface. Multiplying the APE by the square of the sea area, which takes part in the forming of the tropical hurricane, we can estimate maximum possible energy of the hurricane.
The observation of the atmosphere from space gives us a possibility to evaluate the opportunity to initiate the cyclone of moderated power. After one having the decision to interrupt the accumulation of the potential energy in the atmosphere, one makes the influence over unstable levels of the atmosphere by heating for purpose of generation of convection through the troposphere. The convection causes rising of cyclone, if in that region there is the Coriolis acceleration.
Heating the unstable layers of atmosphere for generation of cyclone can be made by various means. Maybe, the best way to initiate TH is to scatter the chemical ingredients, resulting in vapor condensation and development of the deep convection.
Also there is a possibility of space monitoring of ocean regions of high probability of dangerous cyclones to and analyzing data operatively with purpose to manage the genesis of cyclones, outstripping native cyclones and preventing the destructive ones.
Session 9C, Tropical Cyclogenesis II (Parallel with Sessions 9A, 9B, and 9D)
Wednesday, 1 May 2002, 11:00 AM-12:30 PM
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