3D.5
The Met Office 2002 global model upgrade and the expected impact on tropical cyclone forecasts
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and G. Greed
A major change to the UK Met Office global model is due for implementation during the first half of 2002. Commonly referred to as 'New Dynamics', the new model configuration is non-hydrostatic with a semi-lagrangian advection scheme and includes new formulations for many parameterization schemes as well as other changes including increasing the number of vertical levels from 30 to 38. The new model configuration has been undergoing an acceptance trial for many months prior to operational implementation. From September 2001 onwards the performance of the new configuration on the forecast of tropical cyclones was assessed. Results produced to date indicate that the new configuration reduces 1 to 4 day forecast track errors by up to 10%. The old model configuration showed a marked bias towards weakening tropical cyclones too soon. Under the new configuration this bias was eliminated resulting in much better forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity. This paper will present the latest results from the trial.
Session 3D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction (Parallel with Sessions 3A, 3B, & 3C)
Monday, 29 April 2002, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
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