2C.1
The use of GOES imagery in statistical hurricane intensity prediction
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr, J. P. Kossin, and J. A. Knaff
The skill of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecast models is considerably less than that of track forecast models. Since 1997, the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) has demonstrated some forecast skill relative to climatology and persistence in both the Atlantic and East Pacific tropical cyclone basins. The SHIPS forecasts use NCEP analyses to diagnose the storm environment, but include very little information related to the storm itself. In this study, GOES imagery is used to determine several storm-related parameters, which are tested for their predictive value in the SHIPS model. Even without aircraft reconnaissance observations, the center tropical cyclones can be accurately tracked using GOES imagery. The observed storm motion and the environmental winds are used as input to a variational algorithm to determine a parameter related to the vertical influence of the steering flow. This parameter provides information concerning the response of the storm to vertical shear, and has predictive value. In addition, several storm parameters related to the structure of the GOES channel 4 brightness temperature near the storm center are tested for their predictive value in the SHIPS model.
Session 2C, Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change (Parallel with Sessions 2A, 2B, and 2D)
Monday, 29 April 2002, 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
Next paper