Extended Abstract (1.8M)1.1
Precursor Global Climate Influences on the Probability of US Landfalling Hurricanes
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
There is a large variability in US tropical cyclone landfall events on decadal, yearly and monthly time scales. The magnitude of this variability is discussed along with the evidence for there being global atmosphere and ocean precursor signals from which landfall probability forecasts can be made. The recent availability of the global reanalysis data sets going back to the late 1940s allow for the development of probability schemes for US hurricane landfall. This talk shows how these global atmosphere and ocean precursor signals can be utilized to specify landfall probability along 11 US coastal segments specified by landfall frequency and 96 US coastal sub-set segments based on population. These landfall probability estimates should be useful to a variety of coastal interests
Session 1, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability I
Monday, 29 April 2002, 9:30 AM-10:50 AM
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