P1.61
Seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature and trade wind anomalies over the tropical north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett
UK scientists have developed innovative seasonal prediction models for boreal summer sea surface temperature over the tropical north Atlantic (10N-20N, 20W-60W) and for trade wind speed over the tropical north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea (7.5N-17.5N, 30W-110W). The August-September interannual variability of these parameters is linked to seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity and to seasonal rainfall over the Caribbean and Central America. We describe the forecast models, their independent hindcast skill for 1987-2001 as a function of monthly lead out to 10 months, the key predictors, and our predictions for the 2002 boreal summer season.
Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones, Large-scale Dynamics and Convection
Monday, 29 April 2002, 11:00 AM-12:30 PM
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