P1.1
Regional damage assessment of U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones with a focus on North Carolina
PAPER WITHDRAWN
Douglas C. Hilderbrand, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and L. Xie and L. J. Pietrafesa
In recent years, North Carolina has been particularly hit hard by tropical cyclones. Hurricanes Bertha (1996), Fran (1996), Bonnie (1998), and the combined effects of Dennis (1999) and Floyd (1999) have totaled over $12 billion in damage. Previous damage assessment studies have focused on the United States in general. This study isolates the tropical cyclone damage history of individual states and groups of states, including a detailed assessment of North Carolina over the past century to better understand the local factors determining damage patterns. Normalizing the damages caused by individual storms over the past century allows for year-to-year comparisons. The damage record from 1925-1999 indicates that the recent increase in hurricane frequency and subsequent damage is not unprecedented. In North Carolina, the mid-1950's experienced similar hurricane activity as the late 1990's with hurricanes Hazel (1954), Connie (1955), Diane (1955), and Ione (1955) having caused $8 billion (adjusted to 1996 values based on inflation, population growth, and wealth changes).
Major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, 5) were responsible for over 80% of all hurricane damages in the United States from 1925-1999. However, this is not evenly distributed throughout the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines. North Carolina has had significant damage from weaker hurricanes with 70% of damages attributed to major hurricanes. In Texas just this past hurricane season, Tropical Storm Allison (2001) caused historic flooding resulting in over $3 billion damage. Extreme rainfall events like Floyd (1999) and Allison (2001) appear to have a weak relationship to the Saffir/Simpson damage potential scale.
Although major hurricanes cause the greatest damage per storm, they are climatologically rare events, especially north of Florida along the Atlantic coast. Weaker hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions have serious potential in causing significant property damage. This study identifies climatological damage trends and tries to explain these differences between regions.
Poster Session 1, Tropical Cyclones, Large-scale Dynamics and Convection
Monday, 29 April 2002, 11:00 AM-12:30 PM
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