10A.4

Tropical Cyclone evasion by United States Navy afloat units via Optimum Track Ship Routing (OTSR) in the Atlantic Basin

Glenn S. Bingham, Naval Atlantic Meteorolgy and Oceanography Center, Norfolk, VA

Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones pose significant challenge to operational readiness and safety of United States ships and afloat personnel. The Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center applies a broad range of meteorology products and skills, including products and services of the National Hurricane Center to recommend appropriate evasion actions for afloat units. Extensive coordination, in a timely manner, between the "Center" and ships/staffs is required to formulate evasion routing recommendations, and necessary logistical considerations, in order to minimize adverse impact on operational readiness and/or unit safety. Often, evasion recommendations to afloat units must be based on 72 hour (or longer) forecast movements of the tropical cyclone, when forecast errors become significant.

This overview examines the impact of Hurricanes Alberto and Debby on fleet operations, and the process via which effective evasion recommendations were developed and issued to afloat units, with resultant impacts. Current tropical cyclone operational forecasting limitations with related fleet impacts are addressed, which offers beneficial research opportunities.