7D.4
Variability of Hurricane Wind and Wave Prediction due to Track Projections
Hans C. Graber, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. E. Jensen, V. J. Cardone, J. L. Guiney, and M. D. Powell
The estimation of tropical cyclone-generated winds, waves and surge in the coastal waters is of critical importance to the timely evacuation of coastal residents, and the assessment of damage to coastal property in the event that a storm makes landfall. The model predictions of waves and storm surge in coastal waters are functionally related and both depend on the reliability of the atmospheric forcing. Hurricane Georges is an excellent example of an intense tropical cyclone with numerous landfalls and unexpected changes in intensity and movement. Results of "real-time" forecasting simulations for Hurricane Georges will be presented as the storm segment moved over the Florida Straits and then entered the Gulf of Mexico. As hurricanes approach land, various forecast models predict the track, the intensity and land-fall location. These track forecasts can differ considerably and potentially affect a large region of the coastline. We will show the variability of predicted winds and waves for different forecast tracks and how such information would impact the advisories.
Session 7D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction V (Parallel with Session 7B and 7C)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
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