25th Conference on Severe Local Storms


GEM LAM Convective Forecasts: How Can they be used in an Operational Forecast Environment?

Heather Rombough, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and H. Greene, B. Niska-Aro, B. Power, D. Schmidt, O. Stachowiak, C. Wielki, and A. Yun

The Canadian GEM-LAM is a nested local area model with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km. The GEM-LAM window for western Canada covers southern BC and southern Alberta. During the summers of 2006 and 2007, a systematic evaluation of the GEM-LAM forecasts of convection over Alberta was carried out in Edmonton. Conclusions were drawn on the utility of GEM-LAM as a tool in operational summer convective forecasting. It was found that while the timing of convective initiation over the foothills was modeled reasonably well; downstream, the subsequent convective development pattern was unreliable. In March 2008, the Milbrandt-Yau condensation scheme was implemented in the model. In order to evaluate any improvements in GEM-LAM performance, eight case studies of convective events over Alberta during the summer of 2009 were completed. This presentation will evaluate the potential benefits of utilizing the GEM-LAM on the forecast desk in convective situations. Various aspects of convection, including convective initiation, convective evolution, convergence zones and dewpoint temperatures, will be examined.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (2.0M)

Poster Session 4, Forecasting Techniques and Warning Decision Making Posters I
Tuesday, 12 October 2010, 3:00 PM-4:30 PM, Grand Mesa Ballroom ABC

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