Handout (2.1 MB)
Observational data, as well as short range deterministic and probabilistic model guidance suggested a major severe weather outbreak was about to occur. A cyclonically curved upper-level jet was located southwest of New York with a plume of divergence over the Northeast in the afternoon. Much of the southern portion of the Albany forecast area was in the favorable left front quad of a mid-and upper-level jet streak. The 1800 UTC KALB sounding indicated convective temps would be in the mid to upper 70s°F, if appreciable surface destabilization happened ahead of the surface cold front. Surface based convective available potential energy values of 1000-2000 J kg-1 were expected with steepening mid-level lapse rates to around 7ºC km-1, coupled with wet bulb zero heights falling to 9-10 kft. The bulk shear values in the 0-6 km layer were in the 45-50 kt range, suggesting the possibility of isolated to scattered supercells. The forecaster thinking for predominant convective mode this day, however, was for mainly multi-cellular convection with large hail and damaging winds due to the steep lapse rates and strong jet dynamics.
This poster presentation will focus on a detailed radar analysis of the event, utilizing some of the new tools available for operational forecasters during the past few warm seasons. Those tools include 3-D investigations of traditional base and derived products. The storm-scale analysis will focus on helpful techniques to determine the features that produced the copious hail reports. It is hoped these tools will continue to aid forecasters enhance warning language with the new one inch hail criteria in place this year.