Characteristics and Estimated Warning Success Rates of QLCS and Supercell-Produced Significant Tornadoes in the Southeast United States
Of the 254 tornado events examined, around 10% were identified as significant. Of these, about 80% were produced by supercells and about 20% by QLCS. Supercell tornadoes had approximately 10 kt greater rotational velocity values, on average, than QLCS cases. However, the trends in the rotational velocity, as well as the average mesocyclone diameters, were nearly the same for both the two storm types.
NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) storm-based warnings were also analyzed. WFO warnings during QLCS cases were found to have significantly shorter lead times and lower accuracy than with supercells. The average initial lead time for QLCS events was nearly 14 minutes shorter (4 min vs 18 min) and the accuracy, as measured by the Percent of Events Warned metric, was about 20% lower (93% vs 72%).