Extended Abstract (280K)16D.6
A cluster analysis derived synoptic evolution of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic
Justin M. Arnott, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA
A representative synoptic evolution of extratropical transition (ET) in the North Atlantic is proposed and explored. This evolution is generated using results from a cluster analysis partition of cyclone structures within the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) using a five year (1998-2002) dataset of North Atlantic ET events. The cluster analysis results suggest the existence of seven distinct cyclone structure types. Composites representing the synoptic environments associated with each cluster are generated using 12-hourly analysis fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System. These composites are first examined to determine the evolving influence of the synoptic environment on the structure of the transitioning cyclone. Next, the composites are analyzed in the context of a mean path through the CPS of ET events derived from the cluster analysis results. The composites reveal a lifecycle that is readily related to individual cases suggesting a synoptic evolution experienced during many North Atlantic ET events.
Session 16D, Tropical cyclone extratropical transition I
Friday, 7 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon III Room
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