Extended Abstract (80K)5D.7
Development of a wind radii CLIPER model
Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL
A tropical cyclone wind-radii model for the Atlantic basin has been created, using a statistical approach to produce an explicit forecast of 34, 50, and 72 kt wind radii to 72 h. The dependent data set (1963-2002) is formed from the operational (currently 3h) estimates as a ‘best-track’ has not yet been formulated. The operational forecasts are not used. Stepwise multiple regression is employed to identify significant predictors, which are then tested on independent data. A final working model has now been constructed using these predictors. The model will serve as basic guidance, and provide a statistical benchmark for other techniques. The development process and model validation will be discussed.
Session 5D, tropical cyclone observations and structure III
Tuesday, 4 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon III Room
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