Extended Abstract (96K)8A.1
Globalisation, calibration and opportunities for future enhancement of the Dvorak technique
Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia
The Dvorak technique for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones has not only been a critical forecasting tool for the past 30 years but, with the growth of the best track datasets, has also formed the cornerstone for worldwide estimation of risks for a diverse range of applications. These include design conditions for offshore oil and gas facilities, coastal management and storm surge, public evacuation, long term building and planning regimes, climate change assessments and insurance and economic loss studies.
This paper highlights some of the above global applications and the vital contribution of the Dvorak method, emphasising the link between the intensity estimate and the downstream representation of tropical cyclone wind fields used in risk studies. The need for ongoing calibration of empirical models is stressed, together with wind speed measurement standards and the maintenance and extension of surface wind recording networks. Opportunities for refining the technique are then discussed, especially the current technique's implicit NWP-Atlantic split and how Australia, as an example, has looked at adapting the method based on local experience. Finally, given advancing knowledge of the physical processes, the paper looks at the potential for enhancement from a modelling perspective. This concentrates on including elements of storm structure that could broaden the application of the Dvorak technique and provide a more direct coupling with risk model studies. Importantly, the paper also stresses the ongoing critical need for assembling objective global datasets of tropical cyclone parameters.
Session 8A, 30 years of the dvorak technique: Part II
Tuesday, 4 May 2004, 3:45 PM-4:55 PM, Le Jardin Room
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