Extended Abstract (24K)11B.3
August–September ENSO prediction skill 1959–2001: a comparison between four state-of-the-art seasonal models
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders and B. Lloyd-Hughes
August-September ENSO has a strong influence on Atlantic hurricane activity, Northwest Pacific typhoon activity and tropical precipitation. During 2003 four new state-of-the-art ENSO seasonal prediction models have become available each with extended 45-year hindcasts. These models are the DEMETER coupled dynamical models from ECMWF, the Met Office and Meteo France, and the statistical multi-ensemble consolidated CLIPER model. We compare the hindcast skill performance and versatility (ie range of predictand periods and range of forecast lead times) of these models for the predictability of boreal summer ENSO. We also assess the improvement in hindcast skill obtained by combining the individual model hindcasts into a multi-model hindcast.
Session 11B, interannual variablity II (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 10:15 AM-11:30 AM, Napoleon I Room
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