12C.1
Preliminary Investigation of Hurricane Lili Using the MM5 Model
C. H. Huang, Minerals Management Service, New Orleans, LA
The impact of hurricanes on life and property in the coastal areas is rather well-known, especially in the New Orleans area. Hurricanes can also cause disruption to the oil and gas operations in the offshore. Yet, in spite of the advance of hurricane studies in the past, the prediction of hurricane track and intensity still remains a difficult task. For example, Hurricane Lili was a Category IV on October 3, 2002, in the north-center of the Gulf of Mexico, offshore the Louisiana coastal area. Suddenly and unexpectedly, Hurricane Lili became a Category I hurricane near the Louisiana coastal area before landfall.
The purpose of this model simulation is to learn and to understand the capability of the MM5 model as it applies to the simulation of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. In this preliminary study, we are concerned with the dynamic process or the mechanism that influences hurricane development and intensification. The numerical simulations of Hurricane Lili were performed for four days from October 1 to 4, 2002. We use the MM5 model as a tool to investigate Hurricane Lili’s movement and its intensity along the storm path in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea-level pressure, wind speed, temperature, precipitation, and various heat fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere are also simulated by the MM5 model. Here, we examine the effects of the transfers of sensible heat and latent heat fluxes from the ocean surface to the atmosphere on the hurricane development and intensification. We also examine the effect of potential heat content on the hurricane’s development. The buoy data will also be used for this study.
In this study, overall, the model’s predicted results are reasonable. It shows that the weakening and intensification of Lili are in direct response to the transfer of the latent heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. The potential heat content has been considered a factor for predicting the hurricane’s intensification, which characterizes the warm body of water in the Gulf of Mexico. It appears that the potential heat content of the waterbody as an indicator for predicting the hurricane’s intensification is less clear. There may be other dynamic processes or factors that are more important in influencing the hurricane’s development and intensification.
Session 12C, Tropical cyclone simulation I
Thursday, 6 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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