26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

6A.5

A comparison of GFDL, GFS and Eta model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones for 19982003

Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Tuleya and R. Rogers

This paper will present a verification of model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones during the period 1998-2003 from the GFDL, NCEP/GFS and NCEP/Eta models. Results will be presented for approximately 28 storms that made landfall during that period. Results will be compared and contrasted for all 3 models and will be compared to forecasts from the benchmark statistical / climatological rainfall model (R-CLIPER) for all of the same cases. Validation will be performed using rain gauge estimates as well as gridded rainfall analyses from the National Precipitation Validation Unit datasets. .

Session 6A, tropical cyclone rainfall II
Tuesday, 4 May 2004, 10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Le Jardin Room

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