26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Estimating the probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria

A rapid intensification (RI) index has been developed and run in real time for the past three Atlantic hurricane seasons. This index utilizes information from the operational SHIPS model to estimate the probability that a tropical cyclone will undergo rapid intensification. Since the RI index was developed exclusively for the Atlantic basin, an analogous index is also being developed for use in the East Pacific with financial support from the Joint Hurricane Testbed. This paper will compare the performance of the RI index in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Plans for improving the current version of the RI index will also be discussed.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (140K)

Session 14A, Tropical cyclone intensity change III: Statistical-Dynamical Models
Thursday, 6 May 2004, 1:30 PM-3:15 PM, Le Jardin Room

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