26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


An evaluation of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecasting skill of tropical cyclogenesis

Aaron S. Pratt, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

The ability of the GFS and NOGAPS models to forecast the precursor low pressure system of Atlantic tropical cyclones in the 1998-2002 period is examined. Forecasted model fields of surface pressure, 850 mb vorticity and 150-300 mb divergence are verified against observational data to determine forecast skill. This obervational data includes the Tropical Prediction Center's archived surface analyses and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) satellite-derived vorticity. The forecast skill of these models for two tropical cyclone cases are presented.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (144K)

Poster Session 1, Posters
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 1:30 PM-1:30 PM, Richelieu Room

Previous paper  Next paper

Browse or search entire meeting

AMS Home Page