Extended Abstract (140K)16C.6
Composite and Case Studies of Precipitation Distribution in U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari
Landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones present an especially difficult forecast challenge because the potential for a major natural disaster associated with high winds, significant storm surges, and coastal and inland flooding is a major concern. The forecast challenge is increased because the distribution of precipitation in a tropical cyclone is highly variable from one storm to another. Many features, including coastal fronts, orographic influences, and multiple vortex interactions can affect the intensity, maximum amount, areal distribution, and duration of precipitation. The goal of this study is to determine the causes of this rainfall variability through composite and case study analyses.
To build these composites, tropical cyclones have been chosen with observed precipitation distributions that are representative of characteristic rainfall signatures in the overall sample of storms. The Unified Precipitation Dataset (UPD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, and observed data and conditions have been utilized. Individual case studies (e.g. TS Marco 1990) will also be shown to further refine the results from the composites and to diagnose the reasons for the observed rainfall distribution within a given storm.
Session 16C, tropical cyclone best track and climatology I
Friday, 7 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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