Extended Abstract (456K)1C.3
Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis in JMA ensemble prediction system
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Kyouda and M. Yamaguchi
Ensemble forecast has become very popular to predict track forecast of tropical cyclone. We would like to know if ensemble forecast model shows predictability for tropical cyclogenesis. Using the JMA global operational model we examined the tropical cyclogenesis in 25 members and checked large-scale influence, such as vertical shear, low-level vorticity, and warm core establishment etc..
Session 1C, Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Monday, 3 May 2004, 8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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