27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Climatological Analysis and Prognosis of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific on the Background of Global Warming


Yongping Li Sr., Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China

As revealed by the observations that there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from early 50's to early 70's in 20th century and less tropical cyclones from middle 70's to present. The decadal change of tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which supply favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the forecast of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is given. In response to the global climate change there are likely more tropical cyclones generated from early 10's to later 20's and less from early 30's to early 40's under the scenario A2 with more greenhouse gas and SO2 extricated into atmosphere. Comparatively there are likely less tropical cyclones generated from early 10's to early 40's under the scenario B2 in which less greenhouse gas and SO2 will be extricated. Key words: IPCC SRES A2 and B2, general circulation anomaly, tropical cyclone.

Poster Session 3, Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Tuesday, 25 April 2006, 1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monterey Grand Ballroom

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