27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


How well forecast were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and US hurricane seasons?

Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons with seven intense hurricane landfalls on the U.S. and an estimated total damage bill approaching US$ 200bn have proved exceptionally active and damaging. How well did the publically-available seasonal outlooks anticipate the record-breaking Atlantic and U.S. hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005, and would business have benefited from acting upon the forecasts made? The presentation will compare the performance of forecasts (deterministic and probabilistic) issued by different centres at different lead times. It will also describe how one forecast model was used successfully to adjust U.S. hurricane loss probabilities in 2005.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (1.8M)

wrf recording  Recorded presentation

Session 9A, Tropical Cyclone Prediction III - Applications
Wednesday, 26 April 2006, 1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Regency Grand BR 4-6

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