27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Evaluation of a tropical cyclone tracker for operational use with the COAMPSİ regional model

Jeff Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and A. Hergert and C. Dickerman

A tropical cyclone tracker algorithm utilizing winds in the lowest 1500 meters of the atmosphere is parallel tested from 01 June to 31 October 2005 in the tropical Western Pacific. Results are compared to operational tracks generated by the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPSİ). The operational tracker follows 850 millibar vorticity features whereas the test algorithm uses native sigma level model wind fields for determining the vortex center. Several measures are evaluated to determine which tracker performs better in terms of reliability and tracking performance. A binary hit rate score was computed for every storm in the sample since positional error statistics are almost identical. Pressure error differences are also compared to determine which tracker more closely follows the minimum central pressure of the storm. Results from individual forecasts where the different trackers showed varying success are also presented.

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Poster Session 5, Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Prediction
Tuesday, 25 April 2006, 1:30 PM-5:00 PM, Monterey Grand Ballroom

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