27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Operational tropical cyclone forecast model improvements at FNMOC

Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

Significant strides in the depiction and forecasting of tropical cyclones has been achieved in recent years at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). These improvements have been measured by the cost savings to the Navy by providing improved track forecasts for timely and accurate sortie decisions.

Several upgrades to the FNMOC operational watch have positively impacted tropical and extratropical forecasting. This has translated into 2005 global tropical cyclone track errors on the order of 110, 200, and 300 kilometers at forecast days 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Modest skill score improvements from previous years in the NOGAPS, COAMPSİ, and GFDN models have also been realized. Details about FNMOC model performance and recent upgrades in relation to tropical cyclone forecasting are discussed. Specific examples are given to illustrate the recent improvements.


Session 7A, Tropical Cyclone Prediction I - Model Development
Wednesday, 26 April 2006, 8:00 AM-10:00 AM, Regency Grand BR 4-6

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