The Lengthiest Tropical Cyclone (TC) Record in the World: Analysis of Typhoon Occurrences Since 700 AD and its Relation with Atlantic Hurricane Occurrences, Global Temperature and Solar Activity
Jorge Sanchez-Sesma, Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
In this paper an analysis of a Japanese Typhoon (JT) record for the last 13 centuries is presented. This record which is the lengthiest tropical cyclone (TC) record in the world, is based on historical information taken from Japanese imperial archives.
After its analysis and comparison with other records we have arrived to the following conclusions: 1) There are low frequency and in-phase variations of the occurrences of TCs in NW Pacific and NW Atlantic, 2) It has been suggested that a minimum of the Atlantic hurricane activity around the 8th century possible had social impacts in Mesoamerica, 3) It is suggested a connection between low frequency oceanographic and atmospheric processes (TCs and ocean productivity) both in the Caribbean and also in the NW Pacific, with solar activity, and 4) The occurrences of analogue periods suggest the recurrence of temporal patterns of the forcing variables of TC's activity.
This analysis shows crucial elements, both to understand low frequency variations of TCs, and also to study and evaluate their social impacts. More research about long-term variations of the TCs occurrences is needed to improve our protection, mitigation and prevention of associated risks for coastal and inland regions over the world.
Extended Abstract (88K)
Supplementary URL: http://clima.imta.mx
Session 2C, Tropical Cyclones and Climate II - Extracting Signals from the Data
Monday, 24 April 2006, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Regency Grand Ballroom
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