28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


Probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones utilizing wave and climate modes

Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY

Daily probabilities of tropical cyclones are predicted at lead times of 2-15 days around the world in locations where tropical cyclones are most frequently observed. Logistic regression is applied to relate many indices of wave and climate modes derived from outgoing longwave radiation data to tropical cyclone track data around the globe. Blind forecasts of some individual cases and a simple skill assessment relative to climatology will be presented. wrf recording  Recorded presentation

Session 10B, Modulation of Tropical Cyclones by Large-Scale Patterns II
Wednesday, 30 April 2008, 10:15 AM-12:00 PM, Palms E

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