P1H.2
New Products for Real-Time Tropical Storm Tracking
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. R. Lea
Three new tropical storm tracking products developed by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) to enhance their award winning tropical storm tracker are presented and described. These quantitative real-time warning products are available for tropical storms worldwide and will help business to assess better the value of their portfolio at risk as a tropical storm targets land and a tropical storm's immediate post-event impact on their portfolio. The new products are: (1) Forecast wind swaths out to 5 days lead for 1-min sustained wind and 3-sec peak wind gust; (2) Wind probability plots giving the likelihood that 1-min sustained wind and 3-sec peak wind gust will exceed various thresholds up to hurricane category 3 over the next 5 days; (3) An enhanced wind history plot, showing the history of 1-minute sustained wind and 3-sec peak wind gust at various thresholds up to hurricane category 5. These products are also available in polygon form for tropical storms worldwide. Polygon data allow companies to integrate TSR's graphical warning information onto their insurance portfolios in a GIS framework, thereby allowing a prompt and more effective in-house management of storm risk. Graphical examples of the new products will be shown and their application within the (re)insurance industry described.
Poster Session 1H, Poster Session Forecasting Methods and Tools
Tuesday, 29 April 2008, 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Palms ABCD
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