29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P1.2

The risk of strong hurricane winds to Florida cities

Jill Christine Malmstadt, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger

A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Florida. The procedure, called the Hurricane Risk Calculator, provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that the city of Miami can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 50 m/s (45.554.5) [90% CI] or stronger, on average, once every 12 years. In comparison, the city of Pensacola can expect to see hurricane winds of 50 m/s (46.953.1) [90% CI] or stronger once every 24 years. A quantile regression model is then applied to the intensity of hurricanes within the vicinity of Florida with results showing the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as a consequence of higher offshore intensification rates.

Poster Session 1, Posters: TCs and Climate, Monsoons, HFIP, TC Formation, Extratropical Transition, Industry Applications, TC Intensity, African Climate and Weather
Tuesday, 11 May 2010, 3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Arizona Ballroom 7

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